Summary:
The heat-stress-related mortality, which isamong the main impacts of periods of high summer
temperature on society, was reported in many European countries, but analyses focusing on
central European population have been rare. Results of the analysis for the period of 1982–2000
in the Czech Republic indicate that heat stress leads to a considerably increased all-causes
mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Periods with the highest deviations of
the daily number of deaths from a baseline (in all-year data) are influenza epidemics and heat
waves; the distribution of days with the highest excess mortality in a year is clearly bimodal, showing a main peak in winter and a secondary one in summer. Summer days with a considerably
increased mortality are almost entirely days with a positive temperature deviation from
the seasonal course. Deviations of mortality from the baseline exceed 100 deaths daily (more
than 30% relative increase) in heat wave peaks, and the excess total mortality during the severe
1994 heat waves was +456 deaths (+10.3%) for June 17 to 30, and +598 deaths (+12.3%) for July
24 to August 8. The relative increase in mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was evenmore
pronounced. The mortality displacement effect played an important role, since it was estimated
to account for as much as 52% of the total number of victims for the June 1994 heat wave and
48% for the July–August heat wave. People who would die soon without oppressive weather
conditions make about half of the total number of deaths, which is a larger value compared to
what other studies reported. The increased mortality is observed at maximum (average,
minimum) daily temperatures higher than 25 °C (18 °C, 14 °C) and their anomalies from mean
seasonal courses larger than 3 °C. The same values hold for both the total and cardiovascular
mortality. The mortality response at high temperatures is more pronounced in females than
males. Correlations between mortality and temperature variables (including heat index) are
positive and statistically significant (p=0.01), stronger for deviations of meteorological variables
from seasonal courses than for raw values, in females than males, and for heat index than for
any temperature variable and summer simmer index. The unlagged correlations are stronger
than correlations with lags 1–3 days; positive values of correlation coefficients hold for lags 0
to 3 days only while at lags of 4 to 25 days, the link is negative (mostly statistically significant)
which demonstrates the mortality displacement effect and its time extent.
Key words:
mortality – air temperature – heat stress – Czech Republic.
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